[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 03/2100 UTC IS NEAR 34.5N
43.1W OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
EPSILON IS MOVING E 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  THE HURRICANE IS
DISPLAYING A 15 NM EYE AND MODEST CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N11W 4N30W 5N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
30W-37W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
46W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
10-20 KT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
HONDURAS IS PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF BETWEEN
TEXAS AND N FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA IS S OF THE BROAD 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTH CAROLINA.  THUS...15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED MOSTLY FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
60W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W.  NW-N UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 70W.  THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HAS W FLOW E OF 70W AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND N VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1023 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N76W
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC.  A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH NO CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 26N70W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W.  HURRICANE EPSILON IS JUST N OF THE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW N
OF 25N BETWEEN 35W-50W AND FAIR WEATHER S OF 31N.  A 1022 MB
HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 33N9W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N
OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC
FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF THIS RIDGE
N OF 25N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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