[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 34.6N
45.7W OR ABOUT 925 NM WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING ENE
8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. HURRICANE EPSILON CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT AN EYE...AND IS STILL MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF
CONVECTION. COOLER WATER AND SLOWLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. SO...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N19W 4N34W 5N45W 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM FRONT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA INTO SE
TEXAS NEAR OF GALVESTON BAY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE GULF. THE WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA AS THE DAY GOES BY. A
PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IS NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THIS REGION...BRINGING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER INTO THE AREA LATE SUN.
A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED
ALONG 23 N BETWEEN 101W-104W JUST OVER DURANGO MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LITTLE MID/UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH  ONLY
SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NE
PUERTO RICO...WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS WERE REPORTED. THE GFS
FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
NE WINDS IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MIGHT GET INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 31N65W TO NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 3ON60W SW INTO THE
SE BAHAMAS NEAR TO 22N72W. NARROW LINES OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINE
BOTH FRONT/TROUGH. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM WATERS ARE FOUND BEHIND
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 70W-79W.
SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW LEVELS CLOUDS ARE FOUND E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF EPSILON. MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS
IS E OF 32 WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE LIFT ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF
25N BETWEEN 26W-32W. DIVERGENCE PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 30W-42W.

$$
GR


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