[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR 34.2N
47.4W. EPSILON IS MOVING NE 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  AN EYE CONTINUES
TO BE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH MODEST CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE CENTER.  EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BUT AS SEEN YESTERDAY INTENSITY
CHANGES ARE TOUGH TO FORECAST!

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7.5N12W 4.5N35W 6.5N47W 7N57W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN W AFRICA AND
28W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 33W-43W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM FRONT STRADDLES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA INTO SE
TEXAS JUST S OF GALVESTON BAY.  ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 27N90W.  ELSEWHERE A FEW
SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 94W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE SW GULF AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SE
GULF.  THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA
TOMORROW... SPREADING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IN THE N-CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MIGRATE INTO THE AREA LATE SUN.  ZONAL UPPER CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LITTLE MID/UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN... WITH
WINTERTIME ZONAL FLOW COVERING THE REST OF THE AREA.  IN
ADDITION MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO PUTTING A LID ON
CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A FEW SHOWER/TSTMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING BELOW 70F...EVEN INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS... IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN AND ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF
TRADEWIND CUMULUS PRODUCING SHOWERS.  THE ONLY AREA WITH
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN IS THE EXTREME S WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH SHOWERS REPORTED IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.  THIS MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY CREEP NW-WARD... INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE WINDWARDS BY EARLY SUN WITH EVEN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS
EVEN UP INTO THE LEEWARDS.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT MIGHT GET INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 31N71W TO NEAR
28W75W WITH NO SIGN OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.  THE
ORIGINAL COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST A TROUGH ALONG 31N64W SW INTO
THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 21N75W.  THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BASICALLY EVERYWHERE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 45W.  FAIR SKIES CONTINUE TO THE E
OF THE TROUGH WITH ONLY PATCHY CUMULUS ON THE S SIDE OF
EPSILON.  MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IS E OF 40W WHERE UPPER
DIVERGENCE LIFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 23W-37W.  UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES THE NE ATLC WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE RIDGE.  STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH ROUGH AXIS FROM 4N28W TO 10N60W.  PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE OVER
THE ITCZ HAS LED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ITCZ
THOUGH RECENTLY IT HAS DIMINISHED SOME.  PRESSURES REMAIN LOW IN
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC DUE TO EPSILON AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN
THE HIGH LATITUDES.. CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE
TRADE WINDS.

$$
BLAKE

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