[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 02/1800 UTC IS NEAR 32.8N
49.4W OR ABOUT 775 NM EAST OF BERMUDA. EPSILON IS MOVING NE 12
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE AS OF 12Z. A WELL DEFINE EYE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-35N
BETWEEN 46W-55W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N10W 4N20W 5N30W 5N40W 5N54W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITH IN 100 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
10W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPES OVER NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
TAMPA... CONTINUING W TO NEAR 28N86W...TRANSITIONING SW AS A
WARM FRONT TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA THEN SW TO THE TEXAS COAST TO
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...FINALLY W AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF 26 W
BETWEEN 85W-92W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE...FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N955W N TO 24N96W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 93W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA.  WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE RATHER TRANQUIL. SATELLITE PICTURES ONLY SHOWS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER BELIZE.
THE SURFACE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXISTED FROM
29N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR TAMPA.  A  SECOND
DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WELL N OF THE AREA TO NEAR 30N67W
THROUGH THE S BAHAMAS TO NEAR S CABO CRUZ CUBA. A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF
T.S. EPSILON...WHERE CLOUDS INCREASE E OF 60W AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO THE SE OF THE CYCLONE.  STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR EXTENDS OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA E TO NEAR 46W. ELSEWHERE...IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N14W WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING W TO NEAR 21N36W.  VERY DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE THAT PERSISTS IN
THE E ATLC BETWEEN 20W-40W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF ITCZ
TSTMS.

$$
GR


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