[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR
32.8N 49.4W OR ABOUT 775 NM EAST OF BERMUDA. EPSILON IS MOVING
NE 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. EPSILON CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD
WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF
A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN COLDER
THAN -60C. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE EPSILON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N19W 5N34W 5N41W 5N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N AND BETWEEN 36W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS E OF 90W
AND S OF 26N.  A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES OVER NE FLORIDA AND
THE N GULF...THEN CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FRONT OVER N MEXICO. A
AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26 W
BETWEEN 85W-92W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  THE GULF PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL AND THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...WHILE DISSIPATE OVER FLORIDA...THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDING IN OVER THE SE U.S.. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG  96W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... DRY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MEXICO AND THE
GULF...WITH WINDS UP TO 65 KT OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO PUTTING A LID ON CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N W OF 85W NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL. SATELLITE
PICTURES ONLY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND IN PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 32N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INTO THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA NEAR 21N76W.  A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF
T.S. EPSILON...WHERE CLOUDS INCREASE E OF 60W AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO THE SE OF THE CYCLONE. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 28N-36N BETWEEN 26W-34W. A SURFACE
LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF EPSILON NEAR 32N31W. DRY AIR
COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TO 50W. VERY
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
THAT PERSISTS IN THE E ATLC BETWEEN 20W-40W IS SUPPORTING A
LARGE AREA OF ITCZ TSTMS.

$$
GR



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