[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 02/0300 UTC IS NEAR
32.2N 50.2W OR ABOUT 745 NM EAST OF BERMUDA. EPSILON IS MOVING
NE 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS PERSISTED
WITH EPSILON. HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 33W-38W.  A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND SEEMS LIKELY AS WATER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N30W 5N44W 6N54W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N AND BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 1019
MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS E OF 90W.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE NW GULF...FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO...THEN CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 26 W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  THE
GULF PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-21N AND BETWEEN 92W-95W  ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
ALONG E MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DRY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
MEXICO AND THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO PUTTING A LID ON CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT IN THE E CUBA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
18N W OF 85W NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE RATHER TRANQUIL. SATELLITE PICTURES ONLY SHOWS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 32N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INTO THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA NEAR 21N77W.  A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF
T.S. EPSILON... WHERE CLOUDS INCREASE E OF 62W AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO THE SE OF THE CYCLONE. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 26N-36N BETWEEN 33W-38W. MORE
ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 39W-42W. VERY
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
THAT PERSISTS IN THE E ATLC BETWEEN 20W-40W IS SUPPORTING A
LARGE AREA OF ITCZ TSTMS.

$$
GR


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