[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 01/1500 UTC IS NEAR
31.2N 51.6W OR ABOUT 680 NM/1255 KM EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ABOUT
1280 NM/2365 KM WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EPSILON IS MOVING
NORTHEAST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON IS GETTING
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM/185 KM FROM THE CENTER. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS
THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA DIRECTLY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE A BETTER
REPRESENTATION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AROUND THE CENTER FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N TO 33N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. THE WESTERN END OF A STATIONARY
FRONT IS AT LEAST 300 NM NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EPSILON
FINDS ITSELF ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY BURIED IN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
EPSILON COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 40N BETWEEN 40W
AND 65W. THE MUCH MORE WELL-PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS GIVEN WAY TO A MUCH BROADER SENSE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITHOUT THE SAME SHARP WIND SHIFTS. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE IS ALONG 9N46W 15N43W 28N34W 35N34W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 80W AND THE RIDGE...
AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLOW NEAR T.S. EPSILON. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOLIDLY WEST
OF 60W WAY AWAY FROM EPSILON. MOST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR MOVING EASTWARD
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N13W 5N30W 4N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W...AND ALONG THE
COAST OF GUYANA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVER THE GULF WATERS. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA AND EXITED IT COMPLETELY. IT RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE TEXAS
GULF COAST FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO TO EAST TEXAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WEST OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. BROAD AND SLIGHTLY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W.
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY MUCH FLATTER
AND NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO. A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT REACHING THE GULF OF
URABA...FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND
NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 21N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD
FRONT REACHES CUBA JUST SOUTH OF 23N80W TO 20N83W...TO SOUTHERN
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
67W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 75W AND 85W IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N77W TO CUBA JUST SOUTH OF 23N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 23N80W AND SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N75W
29N72W 31N70W BEYOND 33N70W. BROAD AND UNIFORM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITHOUT THE SHARP ANGLE TO THE
TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO...EXISTS BETWEEN 55W AND 80W...BEFORE
CURVING AND COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY SOUTH NEAR
40W...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND T.S. EPSILON. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND T.S. EPSILON.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE AROUND T.S. EPSILON.

$$
MT


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