[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 01/0900 UTC IS NEAR
30.2N 52.1W OR ABOUT 665 NM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
EPSILON IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IS EXPECTED IN THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS AROUND THE CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N19W 4N33W 4N49W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE EAST GULF N OF 23N AND E OF
90W. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF ARE
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST WHERE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF
THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A BAND
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE... PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BELIZE AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT CONTINUED TRADEWIND SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W AND EXTENDS SW TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER CUBA. LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF
30 NORTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. A MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 50W AND
THEN CONTINUES SW THROUGH E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. T.S.
EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH. ALSO THE TROUGH IS DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE ITCZ AND THE AMAZON. A 1021 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE MADEIRA/CANARIA ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N51W TO 12N54W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W.

$
GR





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