[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR
29.6N 53.4W OR ABOUT 608 NM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
SHEAR HAS LESSENED AND THE STORM IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. EPSILON SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND PATTERN TONIGHT AROUND A RATHER RAGGED EYE. A RING OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 51W-54W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 6N49W 8N58W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
30W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N
BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N AND E OF
94W. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF ARE
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST WHERE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC...
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND E CUBA IN 24 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 84W-85W.  ELSEWHERE...
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER HIGH E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.   AND
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BECAUSE THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT CONTINUED TRADEWIND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS SW TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER CUBA. LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF
30 NORTH.  A MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 53W AND THEN CONTINUES
SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. T.S. EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IN
THIS TROUGH. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN
10W-40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS W OF 65W.  A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W.

$
GR




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