[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KJAN 281605
HLSJAN
MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-282200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AND HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...MARION...LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES.

INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LINCOLN...COPIAH...
SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...LAUDERDALE...NEWTON...SCOTT...
RANKIN...HINDS...MADISON...LEAKE...NESHOBA...AND KEMPER COUNTIES.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE
GRENADA...GOLDEN TRIANGLE...YAZOO CITY...VICKSBURG...AND NATCHEZ
AREAS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE
AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KATRINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FIVE
STRENGTH KATRINA WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO
THE HIGHWAY 98 COORIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED
INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF
SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT
ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE
LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY
STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR.

THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED!
HURRRICANE KATRINA IS NOW OF THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE
WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING
THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY.

...INLAND WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES
AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED
STRUCTURES.

IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN
TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL
ABOUT 18 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK
FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS.

...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRACK...THIS RISK WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 68 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS 18 PERCENT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 PM CDT.

$$

GERARD/EDMONSTON



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