[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 280617
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137
KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT
THE SURFACE.  THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB.  ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP
UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0600Z 25.1N  86.8W   125 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 25.5N  87.5W   125 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  89.0W   130 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  89.8W   130 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  89.8W    90 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 36.5N  87.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  80.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/0000Z 45.5N  71.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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