[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 262040
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.2N  85.1W      46  X  X  X 46   PENSACOLA FL       X  1  7  9 17
25.8N  86.4W      24  4  X  X 28   MOBILE AL          X  X  6 10 16
26.9N  87.7W       2 15  4  1 22   GULFPORT MS        X  X  5 11 16
MUHA 230N 824W     1  1  X  X  2   BURAS LA           X  X  8  9 17
MUAN 219N 850W     1  1  X  X  2   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  4 11 15
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  1  2   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1 11 12
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1  3  4   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  7  7
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  1  5  6   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  4  4
KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  2  2
MARCO ISLAND FL   45  X  X  X 45   GULF 29N 85W       3  9  4  2 18
FT MYERS FL       19  1  X  X 20   GULF 29N 87W       X  8  8  4 20
VENICE FL         12  2  X  1 15   GULF 28N 89W       X  4 11  4 19
TAMPA FL           3  4  2  2 11   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  6  8 14
CEDAR KEY FL       1  4  4  3 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  1  8  9
ST MARKS FL        X  3  5  5 13   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  4  4
APALACHICOLA FL    X  6  6  5 17   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  2  2
PANAMA CITY FL     X  4  8  5 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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