[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 261515
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.5N  84.3W      49  X  X  X 49   TAMPA FL          13  3  1  2 19
26.2N  85.2W      33  X  1  X 34   CEDAR KEY FL       4  7  4  3 18
27.1N  85.9W      14  8  2  1 25   ST MARKS FL        X  6  6  5 17
MUHA 230N 824W     1  1  X  X  2   APALACHICOLA FL    1  7  6  5 19
MARATHON FL       99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  5  7  6 18
MIAMI FL           X  X  1  2  3   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  6 10 16
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  1  3  4   MOBILE AL          X  X  3 11 14
FT PIERCE FL       X  1  1  4  6   GULFPORT MS        X  X  2 11 13
COCOA BEACH FL     X  1  3  4  8   BURAS LA           X  X  3 10 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  2  3  6 11   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  1 10 11
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  4  7 12   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  7  7
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  7  8   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       4 10  4  3 21
KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99   GULF 29N 87W       X  5  8  6 19
MARCO ISLAND FL   99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  7  7 15
FT MYERS FL       56  X  X  X 56   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  1  8  9
VENICE FL         35  X  X  X 35   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  4  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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