[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 261435
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.5N  84.3W      48  X  X  X 48   CEDAR KEY FL       4  8  3  3 18
26.2N  85.2W      32  1  X  X 33   ST MARKS FL        X  6  5  6 17
27.1N  85.9W      14  7  1  2 24   APALACHICOLA FL    1  7  5  6 19
MUHA 230N 824W     2  X  X  X  2   PANAMA CITY FL     X  4  7  7 18
MARATHON FL       99  X  X  X 99   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  5 10 15
MIAMI FL           X  1  X  2  3   MOBILE AL          X  X  2 11 13
W PALM BEACH FL    X  1  1  2  4   GULFPORT MS        X  X  1 11 12
FT PIERCE FL       X  2  2  3  7   BURAS LA           X  X  2 10 12
COCOA BEACH FL     X  3  3  3  9   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  1  9 10
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  3  4  5 12   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  7  7
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  2  5  6 13   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  3  3
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  2  7  9   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  5  5   GULF 29N 85W       4  9  4  3 20
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  5  7  6 18
KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  6  7 14
MARCO ISLAND FL   99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  1  8  9
FT MYERS FL       58  X  X  X 58   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  4  4
VENICE FL         35  X  X  X 35   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  2  2
TAMPA FL          13  4  1  2 20

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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