[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 250944
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
540 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HEADED SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTY.  AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
ELSEWHERE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY.

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 5 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF FORT MYERS.  KATRINA WAS
GENERALLY MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD IMPACTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR TODAY...ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY OUTER FRINGES OF KATRINA...AND
WILL PROVIDE BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STEADIER
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST.

HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM
ROTATES THROUGH. ANY STATIONARY BANDS THAT SET UP COULD DROP VERY
HEAVY RAINS IN JUST A FEW HOURS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY AT SUNSET...WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF KATRINA'S INTENSITY
AFTER LANDFALL...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT YET BEEN ISSUED.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FRESHWATER FLOODING...INCLUDING SHEET
FLOW...OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WIND IMPACTS...
PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON KATRINA'S SURVIVAL
AFTER LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT.

SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND REACH 20 TO 30
MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG WITH AND AFTER THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM PASSES.  PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN STRONGER
FEEDER BAND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THOUGH THE PRIMARY RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF LEE COUNTY...THE STRONGER CONVERGING WINDS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A QUICK RISE IN TIDAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 MPH OR MORE.  THIS COULD
PILE WATER ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORELINES...INCLUDING THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR.  TIDES MAY RUN 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING OVERWASH.

SHOULD KATRINA SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER EMERGING
IN THE GULF...A STORM SURGE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SUNCOAST LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN PORT BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACH GALE FORCE.  WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS
KATRINA REDEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF.  SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT IN SOME SPOTS.


...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

BSG

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