[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 250831
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.3N  80.4W      50  1  X  X 51   MARCO ISLAND FL   26  2  X  1 29
26.3N  81.4W      33  1  X  X 34   FT MYERS FL       25  3  X  1 29
26.5N  82.5W      13  8  2  1 24   VENICE FL         12  9  2  1 24
MUHA 230N 824W     X  2  1  2  5   TAMPA FL           7 10  3  2 22
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X  2  2   CEDAR KEY FL       X  7  6  5 18
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2   ST MARKS FL        X  X  3 10 13
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  2  3   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  3 10 13
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  1 10 11
MARATHON FL       16  2  X  1 19   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  8  8
MIAMI FL          44  X  X  X 44   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  6  6
W PALM BEACH FL   64  X  X  X 64   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  5  5
FT PIERCE FL      46  X  X  X 46   BURAS LA           X  X  X  6  6
COCOA BEACH FL    30  X  1  X 31   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  4  4
DAYTONA BEACH FL  10  7  2  2 21   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  4  5  5 14   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  5  9 14
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  2  6  8   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1 10 11
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  1  4  5   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  8  8
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  4  4
KEY WEST FL        9  5  1  1 16   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
C FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
D FROM  2AM SAT TO  2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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