[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Aug 23 09:34:00 CDT 2005


WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JOSE IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD...OR 270/08...ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.

JOSE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING
...BUT A 12H FORECAST POINT WAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.
ALTHOUGH JOSE IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SLOW
MOVING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE DAY OR TWO.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 19.7N  98.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.7N  99.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
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