[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JOSE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 96.8W...OR 52 NM NW
OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...AT 23/0600 UTC MOVING W AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. JOSE REMAINS A FAIRLY SMALL STROM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. MEXICAN RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO...
NEAR VERACRUZ...SHOWS THE STORM MOVING ONSHORE WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 21N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. JOSE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES INLAND BUT
WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER
PARTS OF S/CENTRAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N76W OVER E CUBA NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 26N71W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS COLLOCATED BENEATH
A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
MOVING W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM OVER
THE BAHAMAS TO JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA WITH
LARGE CLUSTERS OF OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...S OF 26N TO OVER E CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA W OF 67W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER
LOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE W OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THE LOW SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 16N34W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED
BUT APPEARS ELONGATED NE/SW. CONVECTION IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TO THE E WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS WELL TO THE W OF LOW DUE TO
THE STABLE DRY LAYER N OF 13N JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
31W-34W WITH THE CLUSTERS TO THE W FROM 15N17N BETWEEN 37W-40W.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
IS OVER WATERS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AT 23/0000
UTC ALONG 19W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED ON A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UPPER AIR DATA
FROM DAKAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THE WAVE AXIS TO 24W.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 34W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 140 NM E OF BARBADOS IS ALONG 57W S
OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS A FAINT INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY A SPECKLING OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED FROM
14N-19N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N TO
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 19N30W...THEN ALONG 11N34W
11N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S
OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
AREA WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER WHICH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF N OF 23N.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES FROM
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NE GULF N OF 28N. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR
E GULF AND CONTINUE OVER FAR S FLORIDA INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA DUE TO THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH THERE. FARTHER S...TROPICAL STORM JOSE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE/MEXICO IS JUST TO THE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
YUCATAN TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING AND AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N E OF 94W. MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND
COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE
N AND E GULF AND NEAR T.S. JOSE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A UPPER LOW OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W NW TO A SECOND WEAK LOW NEAR 18N86W
TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES INLAND OVER
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA
AND IS DRAGGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
E OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N66W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO
THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR ST. VINCENT NW TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
13N-21N BETWEEN 60W-65W. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY...BUT THEN WILL SHIFT W AND BE IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA NE BEYOND 33N72W WITH
BROAD NE/E FLOW EXTENDING FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS FLORIDA.
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W
MOVING WESTWARD AND IS GENERATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM OVER
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA S
OF 26N INTO THE SE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WNW OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL
FEATURES.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 20N W OF
70W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. A CUT-OFF MID/
UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N50W IS PULLING SOME
MOISTURE S PAST 30N AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W-54W. BROAD...IRREGULAR SHAPED
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 24N43W.
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA W ALONG 18N
E OF 30W. A SECOND CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 250
NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W WITH FLOW N OF 24N E OF
30W. WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED.

$$
WALLACE


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