[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT.  A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.  LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION.  THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
NIGHT CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD BANDING NEAR 13N.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W.  THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..

SW GULF WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N THROUGH S MEXICO MOVING W
10-15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 92W-98W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 10N30W 10N45W 6N60W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 26W-33W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR
30N89W.  WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT TO MODERATE...AND
EASTERLY S OF 26N.  CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS DEPICTED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.  40KT-50KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...WHILE A 1009 MB LOW IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA  FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZ
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-90W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... NE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N69W
MAKING THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BELOW AT THE
SURFACE LEVEL.  EXPECT THE N AND W CARIBBEAN TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20N-30N DUE
TO A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N24W.  A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 23N57W 11N56W
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.  A LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF NE
CUBA NEAR 21N75W...REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER HIGH WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CENTERED OVER THE SE USA
CONTROLS THE WEATHER W OF 75W N OF 25N.  FARTHER E... AN UPPER
TROUGH LIES FROM 30N56W TO 24N68W.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE BENEATH
THE TROUGH AXIS THOUGH THEY ARE QUITE ISOLATED.  IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC..  A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N47W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W
WITH TROUGH AXIS SSW TO 20N50W.  THE GFS SUGGEST THE FEATURE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH RETREATING FROM THE
DEEP TROPICS. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES S OF THE LOW N OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W-60W AND E OF THE LOW N OF 15N W OF 30W.  OTHERWISE
IN THE ATLC...  UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MADEIRA ISLANDS TO
25N30W...BRINGING MID/UPPER MOISTURE TO WESTERN SAHARA AND
ASSISTING RARE TSTMS DEVELOPMENT.  UPPER HIGH IS JUST N OF THE
CAPE VERDES RIDGING WSW TO 15N55W WHERE IT MEETS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH SLIGHTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 17N.  S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS... FAIRLY MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ALOFT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DRYING N OF THE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA





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