[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.6N 60.4W...OR 686 NM SSW OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AT 17/0300 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHEAR OVER IRENE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED THIS EVENING BECAUSE THE STRONG WESTERLIES ARE TO THE
N...THUS OUTFLOW IS CONSISTENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...
CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN
58W-61W.

A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N54W MOVING W 5-10 KT. CONVECTION HAS REDUCED SINCE
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
OBSCURED MOSTLY BY HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THIS LOW IS E OF
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN...THUS IS UNDER S TO SW SHEAR AND THUS PREVENTING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY AND IS
ALONG 18W-19W S OF 22N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13N-19N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 20N MOVING
WSW 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
AFRICAN DUST SURGE AND IS TILTED NW/SE DUE TO STRONGER TRADES
NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

W CARIBBEAN/SE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG
86W/87W S OF 25N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE IS TILTED EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF S OF 26N FROM 83W-88W INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG
96W/97W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE GULF WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N21W 10N30W 8N39W 10N53W 13N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250/300 S OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING W INTO W MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING E TO A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N89W.
BROAD-SCALE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED N AND E ON THE
S SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SPREADING FROM MEXICO/W BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES IS CURRENTLY
BRUSHING BY THE AREA WITH ONE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
THE OTHER MOVING THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS SUCH...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR
VERACRUZ MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING N OF THE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL NE TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OFF THE N GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO OFF THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR HOUSTON...BUT OVERALL THE N GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE SW GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVE BY.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N75W S OF HAITI. THE LOW IS PULLING BROAD N FLOW OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN...AND AS A RESULT IS PULLING A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM W OF 80W SE TO THE VENEZUELA COAST. DRY AIR
FARTHER N OVER THE W ATLC IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS CAUSING
ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY ON ITS N SIDE...THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W
WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS DIVERGING TO THE E AND SW. THE E
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES ARE UNDER W UPPER FLOW FROM AN
UPPER LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N W OF 59W OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE AREA WILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER TODAY THEN AS DRIER AIR FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR
30N75W AND IS PRODUCING BROAD E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE W ATLC. THE
HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS SO THERE
ARE NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED N OF 22N W OF 60W. A NEAR
STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED FARTHER E NEAR 30N48W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N62W. TO THE E IS A CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW NEAR 31N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 47W-57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO 22N64W AND IS AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 60W TO
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
UPPER HIGH NEAR 25N37W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS SW TO 17N50W. A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS LOCATED BENEATH
THIS RIDGE AND EXTENDS GENERALLY E OF 45W. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST AS THE NEW TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST.

$$
WALLACE


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