[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 55.5W AT
10/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IRENE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AND WAS THOUGHT TO
RE-STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STRENGTH ON TUE BUT FAILED BECOMING
UNORGANIZED LATE IN THE DAY. IRENE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN  DRY
UPPER AIR BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 21N56.5W-23.5N53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E MOST ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT. MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10 KT. SIGNATURE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DUE TO DRY UPPER AIR N OF 10N ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-14N.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE E EDGE OF AN UPPER HIGH
WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE ONLY PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 72W-76W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W THEN ALONG 10N/11N ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-14N E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 28W-35W AND
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS. MID/UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF IS CENTERED NEAR 24N90W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE SW WHERE A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS S OF 24N E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80'S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70'S ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS IN
THE HE W GULF NEAR 27N92W. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
11N80W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA TO OVER S
FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST UPPER AIR IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY.
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO RUN ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 11N FROM 79W-82W. MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC...SW OF IRENE...PRODUCING NW TO W FLOW AND VERY
DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
DRIFT NW OVER THE FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BEFORE THE WEEKS END.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC HAS RE-ESTABLISHED NEAR 32N77W
AS THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N71W HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW ATLC AND THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 27N W
OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR 30N71W S
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
ATLC IS NEAR 25N65W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO 30N63W AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING S TO PUERTO RICO. A MID/UPPER LOW IS SW OF IRENE
NEAR 19N59W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 55W-64W.
THIS KEEPING THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 24N FROM
54W-68W UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH T.D. IRENE. THIS IS THE AREA OF DRY AIR IS ONE
OF THE FACTORS IN PREVENTING IRENE FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 28N
FROM 36W-56W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
31N FROM 44W-48W  IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 33N45W TO 31N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 20N27W...THUS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO S OF THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SPLIT BY T.D. IRENE WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC BEGINNING TO REGRESS NORTHWARD AND EXTENDS FROM A
1025 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 15N FROM 20W-50W WITH A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W.

$$
WALLACE


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