[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 062037
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

HARVEY'S CIRCULATION TOOK A SHARP LEFT HOOK LATE THIS MORNING...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEVER FULLY CONNECTED WITH THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE BURST.  THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN HAS A SHEARED
APPEARANCE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 6 HOURS
AGO AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT.  ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE
ENCOUNTERED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO FIND
NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.

AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...HARVEY APPEARS TO BE
RESUMING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS
030/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO HOOK UP WITH HARVEY IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND INDUCE SOME
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST.  GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD HARVEY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS WILL COME
INTO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES AND CUT OFF.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT
SLOWER AFTER 96 HOURS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 33.7N  56.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 34.4N  55.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 35.9N  54.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 37.6N  52.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 39.3N  50.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 41.5N  44.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 43.5N  36.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1800Z 44.0N  31.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net