[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS NEAR 32.3N 62.3W AT
04/1800 UTC...OR ABOUT 140 MILES/225 KM EAST OF BERMUDA.
IT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
32N TO 34N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. A SURFACE TROUGH WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FLOW AROUND HARVEY RUNS FROM 30N69W 29N75W TO
31N82W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...BETWEEN THE 29N42W TO 17N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE FLOW AROUND T.S. HARVEY...WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N57W 27N62W 24N65W 24N71W.

EASTERN ATLANTIC 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N32W MOVING
WEST 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND
36W IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE AROUND THIS CIRCULATION
FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. ITCZ SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND
44W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE IS NOT APPARENT
IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS ON CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO PINPOINT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXACTLY AND DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ARE ASSOCIATED IN
PART WITH THE ITCZ AND IN PART DUE TO SURFACE ONSHORE WIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N16W 11N26W...10N33W 9N50W 9N61W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST AFRICA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 13W AND
15W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. REMNANT
PRECIPITATION...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...AND SHEARING
WINDS LEAVING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
14W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF 90W...
COMING FROM AN INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL MEXICO 25N109W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
IS MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST
OF 84W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 30N87W JUST SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS
LOW CENTER TO 28N86W AND CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
84W AND 96W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE GULF WATERS. A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FORM
IN SOUTH CENTER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
17N61W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. ITCZ
PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED AS IT MOVES FROM TRINIDAD AND WEAKENS
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 68W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE...ACCOUNTING
FOR NOT MUCH DEEP LAYER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUES
TOWARD HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA...EVENTUALLY LANDING IN A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY FROM
THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY BEING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 11N78W
12N82W 13N84W. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W AND A SECOND
ONE IS ALONG 86W/87W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N13W TO 30N27W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N42W TO 23N46W TO A NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N61W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.

$$
MT


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