[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 68.6W AT
03/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT WITH
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER LOW SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
PRODUCING S TO SW SHEAR THUS THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED AWAY
FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THE CENTER WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N66W-
31N66W-31N69W-30N71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 21N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD LOW/MID
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N67W ACROSS W PUERTO
RICO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS TO 8N69W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER LOW AND PARTIALLY MASKING THE SIGNATURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 13N25W 10N32W 8N43W 5N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 28W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N E OF 28W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS TO NEAR 28N91W. THIS IS
ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO INTO THE W GULF
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MID/UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NE FLORIDA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE
E GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N GULF COAST
STATES IS LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA INCLUDING FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS BEING DOMINATED BY AND MID/UPPER LOW IN THE W AND
AND A MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE E. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N82W AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 77W AND THE UPPER HIGH JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 77W. ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENCE
IS EVIDENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THESE UPPER SYSTEMS...ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 74W-80W. MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 79W TO
82W. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ALONG
THE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT ARE NOW STARTING TO
DIMINISH. DRYING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
AREA BY WEEKS END.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 23N W OF 76W. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LOW IS SW OF T.D. EIGHT NEAR 27N71W KEEPING S TO SW
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SW POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SURFACE LOW...DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS BEING DRAWN
INTO T.D. EIGHT AND FORCING THE CONVECTION FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 25N65W TO BEYOND 32N63W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE UPPER LOW TIED TO T.D.
EIGHT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE N COAST FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N44W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N48W TO A MID/UPPER LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 21N54W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N56W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE HIGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE UPPER
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 58W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1018 MB SURFACE  LOW N OF
THE REGION NEAR 33N44W TO 28N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N44W TO BEYOND 32N39W. REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS BENIGN...DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH NW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N27W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 37W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CAN ONLY SUPPORT LOW
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPILL OFF THE
COAST COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 25N E OF 40W...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
DENSE AS THE PREVIOUS SURGE THAT IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 65W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N32W
SW TO 20N53W.

$$
WALLACE


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