[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 30 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 6N15W 3N30W 5N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GLFMEX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF
THE SE TEXAS COAST. AS EXPECTED...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ABSENT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY N OF 26N...LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF.  MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REALLY
COME TOGETHER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONT.  POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE KICKING UP SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT.  THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD SUNDAY WITH DECREASING UPPER SUPPORT AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO PULL UP
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
SUN.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED A LARGE
AREA OF SMOKE MOVING NWD FROM S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ACROSS W GULF TOWARDS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N PORTIONS
OF S AMERICA NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO S MEXICO.  FARTHER
E...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SWD OVER THE W ATLC
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN.  THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING INCREASINGLY
NW FLOW AND CONFLUENCE ALOFT.  AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 15N E OF 67W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED JUST S OF HISPANIOLA DRIFTING
SWD.  MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD OFF THE E COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. THE ONLY CLOUDINESS OF NOTE IS A
FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS.  OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A DIGGING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN
50W-65W IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 250 NM E OF A LINE FROM 30N50W 25N52W TO
20N56W.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SWD FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
33N59W THROUGH 27N60W TO 20N65W.  THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE AMPLIFYING SEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE
WEEKEND. STRONGEST/MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-50W SUN.  A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SWD E OF THE AZORES ENTERING THE AREA
ALONG 32N18W TO 28N28W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY
TO 25N30W.  WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...THERE
IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLC...FIRST
FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR
AND DUST EMANATING FROM AFRICA AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LEADING EDGE NEARING 40W.  WHILE SHIP OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE AREA INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 10 MILES...EXPECT
PATCHY AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY BELOW 5 MILES.
FARTHER S...A WELL DEFINED E/W ORIENTED RIDGE NOW EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N.  THE ITCZ IS MOST ACTIVE
BETWEEN 30W-40W AND ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 15W.

$$
RHOME





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