[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 29 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N20W 2N30W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.  FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  SMOKE IS ADVECTING N
FROM S MEXICO TO THE W GULF W OF 90W AND IS ABOUT TO REACH THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR AN AREA IN THE SW FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 90W-100W WHERE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO COME OFF THE N TEXAS COAST AND EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST OVER THE NE GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-76W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W.  FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA DUE TO LIGHT
TRADES.  DENSE SMOKE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...N OF NICARAGUA BETWEEN 85W-100W MOVING N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER E PANAMA
NEAR 8N77W.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS HOWEVER OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N.  EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION TO BE OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC.W OF 65W.  A 1015
MB LOW IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N59W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO 20N63W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 47W-58W.  ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 26N30W 23N35W.  BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 20N E OF 40W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N24W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N
E OF 40W.  EXPECT A 1015 MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
45W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA



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