[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 26 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 2N51W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 2.5N15W 3.5N23W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W-38W.  DISSIPATING
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 2N4W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY NEW ORLEANS TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
THESE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N90W TO CEDAR KEY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
SAME LINE.  A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STRETCHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE
TSTMS... WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET CUTTING THRU THE CENTRAL
GULF LIKELY KEEPING TSTMS GOING AS THEY DIP FARTHER S INTO
FLORIDA TOMORROW.  FRONT SHOULD CLEAR S FLORIDA BY LATE WED WITH
A SHORT-LIVED EPISODE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR.  FAIR WEATHER WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN GULF S OF A WEAK
1004 MB LOW IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WINDS ARE NOW CLOSE TO AVERAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING IN OVER THE W ATLC BEFORE ANOTHER
EROSION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THU AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF.  LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST IN THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF 63W S OF 15N.  FRONT OVER THE GULF SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON RAIN ACTIVITY FOR THE CARIBBEAN OTHER THAN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE N COASTS OF CUBA/HISPANIOLA BY
WED/THU.  ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PUERTO RICO TODAY THOUGH THE
ISLAND LOOKS TO BE ON A DRYING TREND UNTIL FRI WHEN REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL ZONE AFFECTS THE AREA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ANCHORED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. SWLY FLOW AROUND THE NW SIDE OF
THE ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE OVER COLOMBIA...NW VENEZUELA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RATHER QUIET OVER THE ATLC WITH TWO SURFACE HIGHS...1024 MB NEAR
BERMUDA AND 1022 MB OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 33N23W PROVIDING BENIGN
CONDITIONS.  CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATES W OF 55W
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS NW OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO BERMUDA.
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N40W 24N53W BREAKS HIGHS IN
TWO WITH A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH N OF 27N. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  FARTHER E...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPANDING IN
THE E ATLC WITH ONE TROUGH AXIS ALONG ABOUT 35W N OF 15N...ONE
OVER THE COAST OF NW AFRICA AND ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN.  BROAD
SWLY FLOW EXISTS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND WESTERN AFRICA.
THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 20W
FROM DAKAR TO E MAURITANIA.

$$
BLAKE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net