[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE 26 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N50W.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 4W-7W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FROM A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS N OF 27N.  FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE EASTERN
GULF E OF 90W.  A PATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF MOVING RAPIDLY E.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE IN MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 66W-73W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA.  RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A VERY LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF E
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W.  S-SW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT FOR COLOMBIA...NW VENEZUELA...AND
THE ABC ISLANDS WHERE STRONG UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND.
EXPECT STRONGER TRADEWINDS WITHIN 24 HOURS

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 32N58W AND IS WEAKENING TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING
QUICKLY WITH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DIMINISHING
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.  1025 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES
NEAR 33N29W DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
TRADES E OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A BROAD...BUT
LIFTING TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC W OF 60W.
THIS TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD N OF THE AREA AND A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE TROUGH ALSO HAS FRACTURED WITH A SHEARED PORTION OF
THE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 31N51W TO THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHARP RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
32N40W TO A HIGH CENTER NEAR E VENEZUELA AT 8N60W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE IS LIMITING TSTMS TO BE ONLY NEAR THE
ITCZ AXIS S OF 5N.  DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC E OF 35W WITH
A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 24N23W. BROAD SWLY FLOW EXISTS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE ITCZ OVER THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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