[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200631 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED 20 APR 2005

CORRECTION FOR DATE/TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N1W 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 5N50W 4N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N1W 3N6W 4N12W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 70 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N25W 1N30W 1N36W 2N42W 5N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SMALL SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WEST TEXAS WITHIN
60 NM OF 31N102W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO
INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 100W.
SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 3765W TO 1022 MB ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N71W TO 30N81W AND 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N86W IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N91W AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA NEAR 21N98W. THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS CURRENTLY INDICATING
A BACK-DOOR TYPE FRONT MAY REACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTRODUCING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GOES FROM 27N86W TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY SQUEEZING OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP JUST EAST
OF FLORIDA. THIS WOULD PUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
WITHIN THE DRY AND CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH ESPECIALLY AS
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO ON
FRIDAY.  SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT TO
MODERATE E/SE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PURELY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO AND BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND COMBINES WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A
TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM HONDURAS TO 120 NM SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEYOND 30N62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLOSED OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N67W. LARGE SCALE
TROUGH FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO A POINT ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N53W.
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N53W TO 22N60W 20N63W AND
18N71W. EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N17W JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...
TO 30N29W TO 25N43W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N31W TO 12N34W TO 3N36W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net