[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 17 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 3N50W.
MODERATE SCATTERED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN
20W-37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 40W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG 1029 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA
BORDER NEAR 32N86W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF
AND BANKS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR E OF
89N.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM
TEXAS AND SOUTH THROUGH MEXICO.  NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF INTERIOR MEXICO
LEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 87W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN STRETCHING FROM THE HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA/
NICARAGUA BOARDER.  THERE IS STILL SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH NE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FROM SOUTH AMERICA
IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATED/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF
83W...AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COLUMBIA AND
VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1029 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH A COMPLEX DOUBLE LOW LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT STILL
HAS A OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N56W AND
CONTINUES  SW OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE IT JOINS UP WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...
CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
32N34W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING W TO NEAR 30N54W AND E TO NEAR
MADEIRA.  LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 21N35W.  MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR IS WITHIN
EXTENDS OUT FROM  MOROCCO W TO NEAR 20N44W BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND 19N.

$$
JP/MF


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