[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 17 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N15W 3N22W 3N34W 1N43W 1N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF
THE AXIS FROM 30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 25W-28W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N E OF 26W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW VIRGINIA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SW WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE BANKED
AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES. A MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA S AND IS TURNING THE UPPER FLOW
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE W/NW...WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SWEEPING
ACROSS THE E GULF NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM
APALACHEE BAY TO OFF THE COAST OF TAMP FLORIDA. OVERALL SKIES
ACROSS THE GULF ARE FAIR WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS DOTING THE W GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HRS.

CARIBBEAN...
A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN STRETCHING FROM THE S COAST OF HAITI OFFSHORE OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA ALONG SAN ANDRES ISLAND OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA. THERE STILL ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 80W. AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W TO 20N
THEN NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS ALLOWING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE...THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
EASTERLY TRADES.

WEST ATLANTIC...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS INTERACTING WITH A
1008 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 32N68W WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
RAPIDLY NE NOW N OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N65W AND IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE SE U.S. COAST AND GALE CONDITIONS N OF THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN...THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES WELL NE OF BERMUDA. A COMPLEX UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY NE/SW ORIENTATION.
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N57W INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO THE S COAST OF HAITI. OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT LAGGING OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA...
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE DE-FORESTED AREAS OF HAITI.

CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 NM SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
32N34W AND IS PRODUCING CONSISTENT NE/E TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N34W WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING
OUT UP TO 1000 NM TO THE SW TO NEAR 13N49W. MUCH DRIER UPPER
LEVEL AIR IS WITHIN 500/550 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS N OF
20N E OF 25W TO WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THIS LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N43W
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W
WITH THE FASTEST WINDS NOW INLAND OVER N MAURITANIA.

$$
WALLACE



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