[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 11 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N17W 3N30W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N93W 20N97W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-93W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ALONG THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS
ALONG 22N99W 25N100W.  A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N79W PRODUCING SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 36N100W  A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS S TO MEXICO NEAR 20N105W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BEYOND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24
HOURS.  HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN...
BRISK TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N VENEZUELA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 68W-71W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-85W.  FURTHER
N OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 64W-72W DUE TO THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC STATIONARY
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS FROM E PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S
AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N79W.  A
1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N70W 25N75W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 24N60W AND
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT.  1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N29W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 24N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 15N.
RIDGE IS W OF 70W.  TROUGH IS BETWEEN 55W-70W.  RIDGE IS BETWEEN
40W-55W.  TROUGH IS BETWEEN 15W-40W WITH A 90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO W
AFRICA NEAR 25N10W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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