[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 04 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 5N20W 1N30W 2N40W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY THE EQUATOR AT 25W...7S33W...2S43W...
THE EQUATOR AT 40W...AND THE EQUATOR AT 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
6N BETWEEN 10W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL
FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS AS PART OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N66W 25N69W 22N85W 19N87W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE
FORMING IN WEST TEXAS. SOME DRY AIR IS IN PLACE IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD.
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N60W TO 27N64W. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N64W
TO 22N70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N77W. DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N77W TO EASTERN HONDURAS...ENDING NEAR
EL SALVADOR. SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N86W TO 25N72W EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTHEAST OF
25N98W 29N81W AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS ACROSS MEXICO
INTO TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS AND THE REST OF
THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA SOUTH OF 17N EAST
OF 83W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MIXED IN WITH SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR IN THIS AREA. NOTHING BUT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS ELSEWHERE...NORTHWEST OF THE DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N64W TO 22N70W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N77W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
19N77W TO EASTERN HONDURAS...ENDING NEAR EL SALVADOR. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...FROM
LAND TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. HIGH CLOUD BLOWOFF REACHES 12N
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...ALONG NORTH
CENTRAL COAST JAMAICA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N66W 25N69W 22N85W 19N87W. THIS
DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO 27N64W. STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N64W TO 22N70W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 19N77W. SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N86W TO 25N72W EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 75 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N59W 28N61W 24N67W...AND WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N67W 21N75W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
IN THIS CLOUDINESS...AND FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
22N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 32N37W. THE SURFACE 1001 MB GALE
CENTER IS NEAR 33N39W. A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS
FROM 30N32W TO 24N40W TO 22N50W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG
33N29W 24N35W 19N45W. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES THESE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 33N55W 27N59W 21N64W SEPARATES THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE DEEP LAYER EASTERN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 23N24W TO 18N31W.

$$
MT


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