[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291822
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 29 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF JEANNE...NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...IS NEAR 40.0N 70.0W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF NEW
YORK CITY...AT 29/1500 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...MOVING EAST 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.7N 45.8W AT 29/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 1220 MILES...1960 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES... MOVING NORTH 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60
KT GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA IS FORECAST TO BE
A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE THE EIGHTH
HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SHEARED WITH A SHARPLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 44W-47W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER IN A
FEEDER BAND FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL GENESIS WITH A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N32W  THAT
WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF NW SHEAR ALOFT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND
S OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN
93W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 7N30W 11N65W 8N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
23W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
26W-29W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N
OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 31N84W 29N89W 20N96W.  THE FRONT IS RACING S TO
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH PREFRONTAL WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 93W-97W.  DRYER AND
COOLER AIR IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 20N95W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND
32N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE THE SW CARIBBEAN MOSTLY DUE TO ITCZ
CONVERGENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
10N-27N BETWEEN 60W-80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 66W-73W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N50W.  A
RIDGE EXTENDS SW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO 28N70W.  T.S. LISA
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 38N32W.  A RIDGE EXTENDS S TO 20N30W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR ON T.S. LISA.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N46W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 32N28W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 14N12W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN E OF 20W.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N32W IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL GENESIS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING SHEAR OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PERHAPS ENDING THE
RECENT OUTBURST OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.

$$
FORMOSA



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