[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 271458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

JEANNE HAS JUST A FEW SPOTS OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...AND IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO CARRY IT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR
THIS PACKAGE.  IT WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN A
FEW HOURS...SO AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT THE NEXT REGULAR PUBLIC ADVISORY
WILL VERY LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AT THIS
TIME...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BAROCLINICITY AND
SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF JEANNE A FEW DAYS FROM NOW...SO THAT
RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD SEEMS
UNLIKELY.  THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST
WITH THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER IT MOVES BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION ALONG WITH AN
INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
EXCEPT TO KEEP JEANNE ALIVE THROUGH 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/1500Z 31.6N  83.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 32.9N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 34.8N  81.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 36.3N  78.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 37.0N  74.4W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 38.0N  67.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 38.5N  62.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/1200Z 39.0N  59.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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