[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 270701
HLSTLH

FLZ015>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-271000-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...JEANNE CONTINUES ITS PATH ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO APALACHICOLA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT FOR MADISON COUNTY
IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND COOK...BROOKS...BEN HILL...
IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF BOTH THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM EDT FOR MADISON COUNTY IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND
COOK...BROOKS...BEN HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER AND LOWNDES
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER.
THIS INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF VALDOSTA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE. JEANNE WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JEANNE COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 981 MB OR 28.97 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY IN GUSTS...ACROSS THESE
REGIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT SOME INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS AT 2 AM
EDT FOLLOW.

NWS TALLAHASSEE...18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT...30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 38 MPH.
CROSS CITY...15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
VALDOSTA...31 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 37 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 38 MPH.
CEDAR KEY...30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 38 MPH.
BUOY 42036...29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
C TOWER (100 FEET HIGH)...40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER.
THEREFORE...THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
CAN EXPECT LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
WESTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF RAIN CAN EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
MAJOR FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE
OBSERVED...FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN
LATER. THE AUCILLA RIVER ALREADY IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER...
AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA RESPONDS VERY QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THESE TWO RIVERS WILL BE THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
NOW THAT THE CENTER OF JEANNE HAS LIFTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...
WINDS ARE SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND. MINOR STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE
COUNTY COASTLINES. AT THIS TIME THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER
THAN 1 TO 3 FEET BECAUSE THE DURATION AND FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL
BE QUITE SHORT. RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 219 PM AND 230 AM TUESDAY.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE AT 205 PM AND 154 AM TUESDAY.
LOW TIDE AT 816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 154 PM AND 227 AM TUESDAY.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE AT 958 AM AND 1047 PM.
HIGH TIDE AT 428 AM AND 350 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
LOW TIDE AT 619 PM AND 454 AM TUESDAY.
HIGH TIDE AT 1032 AM AND 1159 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW WOULD
CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (OR NORTHEASTERN SECTION) OF THE
STORM. WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE...MADISON COUNTY OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NOW FALL UNDER THAT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT. A MINIMAL THREAT
EXISTS FURTHER TO THE WEST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 6 AM EDT.

$$

22-BARRY
WWWW
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