[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 261454
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND 1.6 MICRON NEAR-INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG WITH
GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY GIVE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT POSITION LOCATION
FOR LISA. THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A
PORTION OF THE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA ARE SPLIT BETWEEN 55 KTS AND 45 KTS...SO FOR THIS ADVISORY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED TO 50 KTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/7. LISA IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LEAVE LISA BEHIND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF A MID-LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH SLOWLY BUILDS
TOWARD THE WEST AND LISA STAYS EAST OF OF A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A CONTINUAL NORTHWEST TRACK. THE GUIDANCE
SUITE ARE MOSTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT OF LISA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST ADJUSTMENT IN THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIODS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR LISA REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SYSTEM UP
TO 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
SHEAR INDICATED BY SHIPS DOES DIMINISH AND SHOULD ALLOW LISA TO
DEVELOP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
HOLDS LISA TO 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD.

FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 19.0N  46.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N  46.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.8N  47.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 23.1N  48.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N  49.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  50.3W    65 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  51.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  53.0W    65 KT


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