[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 25 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JEANNE MADE LANDFALL ON THE S END OF HUTCHINSON
ISLAND...E OF STUART AT 0350 UTC...1150 EDT. JEANNE IS CENTERED
NEAR 27.3N 80.5W...ABOUT 15 MILES WNW OF STUART FLORIDA OR ABOUT
25 MILES SSW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AT 26/0600 UTC MOVING
SLIGHTLY N OF NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 953 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. JEANNE HAD A LARGE EYE...40 NM WIDE...WITH THE
EAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE S EYEWALL. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONNECTION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE W AND WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER TO THE N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLC
FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 31N E OF 77W.


TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 46.2W...OR ABOUT 900
NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 26/0300 UTC MOVING NNW AT 9 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED
TO THE NW OF THE STRONG CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER HIGH WHICH IS NOW EXERTING
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE/
DRY AIR IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE E. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 44.5N FROM 16N-18.5N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 31W/32W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF 16N FROM 27W-32W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 15N10W OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU
ALONG 11N15W 5N32W 9N45W 8N55W 7N70W. THE AXIS IS DISRUPTED IN
THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND T.S. LISA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 8N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N22W-2N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
AND THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 88W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS IN THE GULF FROM 29N94W-22N90W. A SURFACE
REFLECTION...IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N89W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER JEANNE EXTENDS INTO THE E GULF
AND NE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS IS GENERATING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EVEN THOUGH JEANNE HAS MADE LANDFALL. A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE HAS SET UP SE OF JEANNE...WITHIN 175 NM ENE OF
THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N72W EXTENDING SE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 20N69W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER NE GUATEMALA COVERING THE
FAR SE GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 21N FROM 84W-94W. THIS IS
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. BROAD BUT WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NE
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 16N FROM
65W-77W. AN INDUCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE
COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W. A SURFACE REFLECTION...IN THE FORM
OF A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM 21N74W ACROSS E CUBA AND NW
JAMAICA TO 15N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS/TROUGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N63W SW TO 16N67W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
COVERS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. LOW/MID LEVEL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N58W NW TO 16N67W.

REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 39N44W WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROF EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 22N62W. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W SW
ALONG 25N50W W TO 24N60W THEN NW TO 27N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS FILTERING S INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 52W-67W THUS PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR T.S. LISA ALONG 21N40W NE TO
BEYOND 32N33W. THIS RIDGE IS NARROWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC AND IS BEGINNING TO FORM A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N26W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W THROUGH THE UPPER LOW TO A BASE NEAR
16N26W. THE BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT COVERED THE E ATLC
24 HOURS AGO IS NOW CONFINED TO INLAND OVER AFRICA W OF 17W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N52W WITH WEAK/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
W OF 49W. T.S. LISA IS ON E SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TRYING TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
LISA. RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH NEAR LISA. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW AFRICA NEAR
8N14W W TO 10N30W. THIS RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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