[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 260409
HLSTAE
FLZ015>019-026>029-034-GAZ157>161-260700-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1115 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO INDIAN PASS...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
COAST FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF
STEWART FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. JEANNE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND APALACHEE BAY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG BEND DURING
THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH OVER ALL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS JEANNE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
SINCE THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT AN INCREASING PACE...FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE
EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES CAN
EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 1 TO 3 INCH
TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST OR IF THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES...THESE TOTALS COULD END
UP BEING HIGHER. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN CAN
EXPECT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
MAJOR FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE
OBSERVED...FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN
LATER. THE STORM WOULD HAVE TO TRACK AS FAR WEST AS TALLAHASSEE FOR
THERE TO BE SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE SAINT MARKS...AUCILLA AND
WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE AUCILLA
RIVER AT LAMONT IS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE
NEAR VALDOSTA RESPONDS QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINS. INTERESTS ALONG THESE
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
SINCE THE STORM CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM LIFTS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE WEST AT AROUND 20 MPH ON
MONDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST OF TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE AT 214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE AT 1015 PM AND 958 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 428 AM AND 350 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
LOW TIDE AT 634 PM AND 619 PM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1032 AM AND 1159 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (OR NORTHEASTERN SECTION) OF THE
STORM. WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE CONTINUING TO SHIFT FURTHER
WESTWARD...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY NOW FALL UNDER THAT REGION OF THE STORM.
THEREFORE...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE
AREAS...WITH A MUCH LESSER THREAT FURTHER TO THE WEST. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE VERY CLOSELY...AS
THIS THREAT MAY STILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER WEST. AS FAR AS TIMING IS
CONCERNED...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 300 AM EDT.

$$

17-GOULD

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