[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 252123
HLSTAE
FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-GAZ127>131-145>148-157>161-260400-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR
FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
COAST FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL WILL REACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
TONIGHT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND THEN SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THESE AREAS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH OR MORE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD THEN PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INLAND COUNTIES OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ALSO SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA BIG
BEND ZONES. AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO AFFECT COUNTIES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
SINCE THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA AT AN INCREASING PACE...FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES CAN EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ONE TO TWO INCH TOTALS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST
OR IF THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES...THESE TOTALS COULD END UP BEING
MUCH HIGHER. FOR NOW...ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED WITH JEANNE.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE OBSERVED...
FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN LATER. THE
STORM WOULD HAVE TO TRACK AS FAR WEST AS TALLAHASSEE FOR THERE TO BE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE SAINT MARKS...AUCILLA AND WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVERS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT
IS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE NEAR VALDOSTA
RESPONDS QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINS. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
SINCE THE STORM CENTER WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...LOCAL WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM LIFTS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE WEST AT AROUND 20 MPH ON
MONDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST OF TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE...805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE...214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE...816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE...805 AM AND 840 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS JEANNE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MINIMAL FOR NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND THE WIDESPREAD TORNADO OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED WITH
IVAN WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE YOUR HOME SHOULD BE STARTED NOW WHILE THE
WEATHER IS STILL GOOD. IT MAY BE DANGEROUS TO WORK OUTSIDE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BLOW LOOSE ITEMS AROUND
CREATING A HAZARD. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS AFFECTED BY TROPICAL
STORM WINDS. CHECK THAT YOUR BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING.
HAVE FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND ALONG WITH SPARE BATTERIES.  ALSO...BE SURE
TO HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK
WITHOUT POWER.

IF YOU OWN A BOAT...MOVE IT TO A SAFE LOCATION.

ALL PEOPLE IN THE POTENTIAL PATH OF HURRICANE JEANNE INCLUDING NORTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND ADVICE OR ORDERS FROM
LOCAL AUTHORITIES. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY MIDNIGHT EDT THIS SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

48-TURNAGE


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