[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Sep 24 03:36:36 CDT 2004


WTNT44 KNHC 240835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  73
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORT ARTHUR TEXAS WHILE IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...AND MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS IVAN SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE
DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IVAN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
SUBSEQUENT PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 30.2N  94.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 30.4N  95.1W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 30.1N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 29.2N  96.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 28.0N  97.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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