[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 232043
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/22.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS EARLIER WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF A LOW.  THE MOTION IS FORCAST TO BE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
48 HOURS...AND KARL THEN MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS.  SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASING AND BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE
FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
MODEL FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS BAROCLINIC
ENERGY SOURCES MAINTAIN A STRONG CIRCULATION.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 35.7N  43.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 39.7N  42.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 44.7N  42.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 49.2N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 54.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 62.0N   9.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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