[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 200832
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

AS IT DID LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
KARL HAS DETERIORATED A BIT...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT
AND A SPREADING OUT OF THE COLDEST CORE CLOUD TOPS.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM NEAR 0Z THAT SUGGESTED
ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WAS OCCURRING.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT...BUT KARL WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE IT IS
OVER WARM WATER AND UNDER LIGHT SHEAR.  AFTER THAT...WESTERLY SHEAR
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY COLDER SSTS NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A STILL POTENT KARL MERGES WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT TO REFLECT
MORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.3N  45.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.9N  46.8W   110 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N  48.4W   120 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.1N  49.6W   125 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N  50.0W   125 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  48.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 38.0N  44.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 49.0N  43.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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