[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 171427
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

WHILE KARL HAS A GOOD SKELETAL BANDING STRUCTURE THERE IS NOT MUCH
MEAT ON THOSE BONES.  THE BANDS...WHILE WELL DEFINED...ARE VERY
THIN...AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SHOWED VERY LITTLE WIND FOR A
SYSTEM WITH THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT.  I WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 55 KT BUT IT'S PROBABLY HIGH.  REGARDLESS...KARL'S
STRUCTURE AS WELL AS ITS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  KARL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...WATERS WILL
BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REQUIRES THAT KARL BE
RELOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/9.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD RECURVE KARL BY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS STILL SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.3N  35.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.9N  37.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 13.7N  38.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.6N  40.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N  41.5W    90 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  44.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  45.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N  45.5W   100 KT


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