[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 152132 CCA
HLSTLH
GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-160100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT..CORRECTED TO MODIFY STORM SURGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

..A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA WEST TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN
SOUTH TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING
FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
COUNTIES OF GADSDEN...LEON AND LIBERTY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 AM EDT EDT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND MINUS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA MINUS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES. A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT
125 SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 190 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME SCHOOL CLOSINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ANNOUNCED.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE SHORTLY WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AND NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA... AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING
WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE WINDS AT THE C TOWER...100 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE...15 MILES SOUTH OF ST. GEORGE ISLAND ARE 46 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 52 KNOTS. AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA WINDS ARE 33 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 46 KNOTS...AND AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY...WINDS
ARE 47 GUSTING TO 58 KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW OTHER COASTAL SITES...
CEDAR KEY...19 MPH...GUSTS TO 21 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...14 MPH...GUSTS TO 16 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...20 MPH...GUSTS TO 36 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...27 MPH...GUSTS TO 37 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE LANDFALL OF IVAN JUST EAST OF MOBILE
BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER THE
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND DURING THIS TIME. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS. PANAMA CITY
CAN EXPECT AROUND 20 HOURS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON. DOTHAN CAN EXPECT AROUND 18 HOURS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND TALLAHASSEE CAN EXPECT AROUND SEVEN HOURS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

...TORNADO THREAT...
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND
IN THE OUTER BANDS OF IVAN. HOWEVER...TORNADOS WILL BE LIKELY FURTHER
NORTH AS WELL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD...STORM TIDE IMPACTS AND WAVES...
THE STORM  SURGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET WEST OF AND AROUND
4 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT...AND RISE TO AROUND 8 TO 10
FEET WEST OF...AND 6 TO 7 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND ON THURSDAY.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES OF 20 TO 25 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM THIS EVENING AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...628 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM TONIGHT...1224 AM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM TONIGHT...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM THIS EVENING...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM THIS EVENING...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM THIS EVENING...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO BATTERING WAVES AND
BUILDING SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE...FLORIDA AROUND 9 PM EDT (6 PM CDT).

24-BLOCK

$$


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