[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 152042
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.2N  88.0W      38  X  X  X 38   VENICE FL          X  X  1  1  2
33.8N  87.2W      21  2  1  X 24   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  2  3
35.0N  86.0W       5  8  3  2 18   CEDAR KEY FL       X  1  3  2  6
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   ST MARKS FL        2  5  2  2 11
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  2  3   APALACHICOLA FL    5  3  2  1 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  2  2  4   PANAMA CITY FL    12  2  1  X 15
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  3  3  7   PENSACOLA FL      45  X  X  X 45
SAVANNAH GA        X  1  3  5  9   MOBILE AL         59  X  X  X 59
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  2  5  7   GULFPORT MS       52  X  X  X 52
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  5  6   BURAS LA          39  X  X  1 40
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  4  4   NEW ORLEANS LA    16  X  X  X 16
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 85W       3  2  2  1  8
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W      50  X  X  X 50
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W      99  X  X  X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM THU TO  1AM FRI
C FROM  1AM FRI TO  1PM FRI
D FROM  1PM FRI TO  1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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