[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Sep 15 15:33:59 CDT 2004


WTNT71 KNHC 152033
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.7N  69.2W      45  X  X  X 45   MYMM 224N 730W     X 13  9  3 25
20.6N  70.9W      19 12  1  X 32   MYSM 241N 745W     X  1 12  7 20
21.6N  72.4W       1 21  3  1 26   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  8  9 17
TIST 183N 650W    16  X  X  X 16   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  1 11 12
TJPS 180N 666W    99  X  X  X 99   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1 11 12
MDSD 185N 697W    30  X  1  X 31   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  8  8
MDCB 176N 714W     5  5  1  1 12   ST THOMAS VI      16  X  X  X 16
MTPP 186N 724W     3 10  1  2 16   SAN JUAN PR       99  X  X  X 99
MTCA 183N 738W     X  3  4  3 10   PONCE PR          99  X  X  X 99
MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X  2  2   MARATHON FL        X  X  X  2  2
MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X  2  2   MIAMI FL           X  X  X  4  4
MUGM 200N 751W     X  2  7  4 13   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  4  4
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  1  6  7   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  4  4
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  2  2   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3
TJSJ 184N 661W    99  X  X  X 99   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2
MDPP 198N 707W    26  5  X  X 31   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  2  2
MBJT 215N 712W     7 21  1  1 30

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
C FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
D FROM  2PM FRI TO  2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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