[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 151241
HLSTAE
GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-151600-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
745 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA WEST TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND
FROM APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THIS MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER
EASTWARD LATER TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT (7 AM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT
180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. IVAN
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST AS A
CATEGORY THREE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME SCHOOL CLOSINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ANNOUNCED.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AND NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...
PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER
BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL
CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE WINDS AT THE C TOWER...100 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE...15 MILES SOUTH OF ST. GEORGE ISLAND ARE 38 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 41 KNOTS. AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA WINDS ARE 33 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS...AND AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY...WINDS
ARE 39 GUSTING TO 49 KNOTS. OVER LAND...THE HIGHEST WINDS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT APALACHICOLA...AND ARE 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW OTHER COASTAL SITES...
CEDAR KEY...22 MPH...GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...14 MPH...GUSTS TO 16 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...14 MPH.
DESTIN...15 MPH...GUSTS 26 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE LANDFALL OF IVAN NEAR MOBILE BAY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THIS
TIME.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
IN THE OUTER BANDS OF IVAN...BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE COAST...AS
WELL AS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FOR IVAN.
AN EVEN HIGHER SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE
BAYS...INCLUDING WEST BAY AND NORTH BAY. IF IVAN TRACKS FURTHER EAST
THAN ANTICIPATED...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER STORM SURGES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM THIS EVENING AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...628 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM TONIGHT...1224 AM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM TONIGHT...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM THIS EVENING...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM THIS EVENING...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM THIS EVENING...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO BATTERING WAVES AND
BUILDING SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE...FLORIDA AROUND 12 PM EDT (11 AM
CDT).

$$

17-GOULD


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