[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 142329
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-150400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004


...THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF
HURRICANE FREDERIC...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.  THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM MOBILE TO
DESTIN...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... AND
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 615 PM CDT...THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. IVAN WAS
MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
140 MPH...WHICH MAKES IVAN A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CRITICAL INFORMATION...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR
RESIDENTS OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND/OR RADIO STATIONS. THIS
INFORMATION IS BEING UPDATED BY THE LOCAL MEDIA AS THEY RECEIVE IT.
RESIDENTS WHO PLAN ON EVACUATING SHOULD DO SO BY NOON WEDNESDAY.  IN
ADDITION...RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE ALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD
BECOME AIRBORNE AND BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WHEN IVAN MAKES LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...A MAXIMUM STORM
SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
COASTLINE WITH WATER LEVELS OF 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WHEN TIDE LEVELS RISE TO 3 FEET... THE
CAUSEWAY AND THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND BEGIN TO FLOOD. TIDE
HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO FLOOD THE ROAD LEADING TO FORT
PICKENS ON PENSACOLA BEACH IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

IF THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF WEST BEACH AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA NEAR
THE 3 MILE MARKER IN BALDWIN COUNTY.  IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA
PENSACOLA BEACH WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF NAVARRE BEACH IN
SANTA ROSA AND HIGHWAY 98 BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH AND DESTIN IN
OKALOOSA COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WITH HURRICANE IVAN WILL LIKELY BE
EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THOSE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE FREDERIC
IN 1979...WHICH IS THE BENCHMARK STORM FOR THE MOBILE AREA AND COULD
BE NEAR OPAL'S LEVELS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  IF THE FORECAST TRACK
OF HURRICANE IVAN IS ACCURATE...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL OCCUR
OVER DAUPHIN ISLAND AND OVER THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA...WITH
SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING OVER GULF SHORES AND ORANGE
BEACH. SIGNIFICANT BUT LESSER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE.

...WIND IMPACT...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 140 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHEN IVAN MAKES
LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORIENTATION AND FORECAST
TRACK OF IVAN...THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA CAN EXPECT AN ESTIMATED 30 TO 36 HOURS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR MORE...AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 HOURS OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR MORE.  THE WIND IMPACT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR INLAND
COUNTIES.

...RIP CURRENT THREAT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DUE TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. PEOPLE ARE
DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS
OF IVAN ARE NO LONGER AFFECTING THE REGION.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GEORGE...GREENE...WAYNE... PERRY
AND STONE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  FOR MOBILE...
BALDWIN...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...MONROE...CLARKE...WILCOX...
ESCAMBIA...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS (ESPECIALLY JUST
EAST OF IVAN'S TRACK).  IF IVAN SLOWS PRIOR TO AND AFTER LANDFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY APPROACH 20 INCHES ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS.  PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR NEAR
CREEKS OR STREAMS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING UNTIL IVAN HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA.  REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED
RAINFALL VALUES...WILL CREATE A CONDITION WHEREBY RIVERS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO DRAIN AS NORMAL.  THUS...INLAND RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A
MAJOR PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF IVAN'S TRACK...ESPECIALLY IF IVAN
WERE TO SLOW DOWN AFTER LANDFALL.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IVAN'S CENTER AS THE STORM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING.

BEELER

$$







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