[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 071157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE 07 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
ZZZZ UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 11.6 5984AT 07/12 UTC WHICH
IS ABOUT 110 NM S OF BARBADOS MOVING WEST AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED REMAINS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT AND THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
SMALL CLEARLY DEFINED EYE HAS REDEVELOPED. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 54W-59W. DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER BARBADOS AND TOBAGO EARLY THIS MORNING
MOVING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. GOOD ROTATION IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 10N20W 12N30W 5N42W 12N54W THEN
DISTORTED BY HURRICANE IVAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 21W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM FRANCES TO A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W CONTINUING SW TO A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W TO OVER
MEXICO NEAR MEXICO CITY. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ON THE
S SIDE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST E OF FRANCES IS ADVECTING MOISTURE.
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND EVEN DRIER
AIR IS BEING PULLED S BY FRANCES MOVING INTO THE NW GULF N OF
27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH E OF FRANCES IS
GENERATING NW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W. THE CONFLUENCE FLOW ON THE N OF
THIS CIRCULATION AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DEVELOPING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 97W-72W AND ON TO THE W CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 15N81W TO OVER COLOMBIA. THE
CURRENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALLOWING THE W CARIBBEAN TO BECOME EVEN MORE UNSETTLED
WHILE IVAN MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
E OF FRANCES TO 64W ALONG 32N. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES CONTINUES TO STREAM S OVER THE W ATLC N
OF 27N W OF 76W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 26N FROM 36W-62W WITH AN
EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 38W. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N46W EXTENDING W ALONG 31N56W THEN WNW OVER BERMUDA TO BEYOND
33N68W. A 1009 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG
29N38W 24N43W TO 22N62W. TO THE E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 24N36W NNE TO BEYOND 32N33W. FURTHER S...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
24N54W ALONG 23N64W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS E OF 63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS LIMITING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE E ATLC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N17W TO 20N29W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
13N25W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 13N37W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS E OF IVAN NEAR 14N50W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 39W-50W.

$$
WALLACE



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